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This chapter examines the evolution of strategic perceptions in the Middle East, based on the manner in which ambitions and capabilities related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-with a particular focus on the nuclear realm-have unfolded in the strategic thinking of states in this region.
In the ACRS working group, strategic perceptions were on the agenda for discussion, revealing how states were thinking about the role and impact of WMD.
An essential starting point for understanding the regional landscape in the Middle East and assessing strategic perceptions is an appraisal of the unique model that Israel established through its policy of ambiguity in the nuclear realm.
The model of "nuclear ambiguity" was born of an understanding forged in late 1969 between US president Nixon and Israeli prime minister Meir, and has been strictly maintained by Israel for over forty-five years.13 The meaning of this policy-often misconstrued as a simple exercise in secrecy-is essential for assessing the evolution of strategic perceptions in the Middle East, and its implications are far-reaching.14 As such, it is important to lay out in broad strokes the prominent features of Israel's policy and Egypt's reaction to it.
International efforts to confront Iran's ambitions began in 2003, when the EU-3 initiated talks; the three European states hoped to thwart Iran's plans to work on the nuclear fuel cycle in the earliest stage.45 The initiation of these negotiations- which continued in different formats until 2015-indicated that a second "nuclear player" had been injected into the Middle East strategic arena, and strategic perceptions in the region began to evolve.
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